KOF Economic Barometer - Losing momentum

The KOF Economic Barometer has risen 0.18 points relative to October (1.44, revised from 1.45) and now points at 1.62. Accordingly, the year-on-year growth rate of Swiss GDP should stay in positive territory. However, the recovery from the recession appears to be losing momentum. The KOF Economic Barometer is based on a multi-sectoral design with three modules. Their contribution to the development of the barometer is as follows: The «Core GDP» module (GDP excluding construction and banking) is practically pointing to the side. The «Banking» module shows a similar evolution. Unlike the former modules, the «Construction» module is indicating an increase. The Core GDP module accounts for more than 90% of Swiss GDP and hence dominates our barometer. The measurement model «Swiss Industry» is signalling a continuous rise. The same holds for the measurement model «Swiss Exports Destination EU», whereas the «Swiss Consumption» measurement model is now again pointing downward.

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